Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
