Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
